September 12, 2025:
On the morning of September 10, Russian long-range offensive drones entered—and violated—Polish airspace. Between 20 and 25 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) crossed the Polish border. One Polish government source reported that 19 Shahed offensive drones entered Poland. Apparently, there were also several unarmed decoy drones in the attack. Ground-based air defense systems (missile and anti-aircraft guns) were alerted. Four Polish airports were closed as the attack drones approached—Rzeszów, Lublin, Warsaw, and Modlin. And Moscow learned something about NATO’s air defense alert system, at least its response time. Russian drones were reported near the town of Zamość, located approximately 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s patrolling over NATO’s eastern nations intercepted and shot down “several” of the drones. Later reports also indicated that Italian aircraft engaged the intruding drones. Open-source after-action reports stated that NATO aircraft used U.S.-made AIM-120C-7 AMRAAMs to destroy two Shaheds. Each AIM-120C costs about two million dollars. The Iranian-made Shaheds? Somewhere between $10,000 and $12,000 is the accepted figure. The AIM-120C was designed and built to destroy expensive enemy aircraft. The defender’s killing system costs a lot more than the attacker’s drone strike system. So, Russia knows NATO will expend expensive missiles to kill cheap drones. Fighters can use their cannons to destroy drones, but none of the after-action reports mentioned destruction by gunfire. NATO pilots know how to use aerial autocannons, if their planes carry them. After-action reports noted this was the first time NATO aircraft had engaged “enemy” targets over NATO-allied territory. That’s a huge first—one with potential global consequences. Poland clearly believes the attacks were deliberate. Several Western strategic experts have reached the same conclusion. NATO intelligence may know the attacks were deliberate—a Russian probe to test NATO’s reaction.
The Kremlin got a diplomatic reaction. Poland called for a NATO Article 4 consultation, an emergency meeting within the alliance to discuss the situation and consider response options. One option is to invoke NATO Article 5, the go-to-war option. The Russian drone probe has put NATO on alert. War may not be imminent, but—Russia has attacked a NATO country. The Kremlin claims it was an accident. The truth is, the situation can very quickly spin out of control. Murphy’s Law: if it can go wrong, it will. (AB)