October 8, 2025: Russia and NATO have been engaged in an arms race since shortly after the end of World War II in 1945. To support this effort, NATO was founded in 1949 as a coalition of European nations, plus the United States and Canada, to defend Europe against a potential Russian invasion. NATO did not engage in countering an actual Russian invasion until 2022, when Ukraine was invaded by Russia. NATO became the primary source of Ukraine’s military and economic support, a situation that continues to the present.

These efforts to support Ukraine revealed many areas where NATO was unprepared for actual warfare, even when only supporting another nation. One of the more embarrassing problems was NATO’s inability to supply Ukraine with all the artillery ammunition it needed, particularly 155mm artillery shells. Currently, the United States produces 40,000 155mm artillery shells a month, far below the planned 100,000, which won’t be achieved until sometime in 2026. Meanwhile, Russia produced over two million 152mm shells in 2024, and in 2025, that number might more than double.

Russia has also received 12 million 152mm shells from North Korea. Many of these shells were old and past their use-by date. Russia didn’t care, as these defects mainly affected accuracy and reliability. Most of these older shells landed in enemy territory and exploded, which for the Russians was adequate. Meanwhile, North Korea disposed of all its older munitions and replaced them with recently produced shells.

NATO has 32 members, but only the United States, Britain, Germany, and Norway produce 155mm shells. This shortage of shells did not become a major problem because the Ukrainians developed a new weapon—drones—that were cheaper and more effective than artillery shells. While artillery shells remained useful in some situations, by the end of 2024, over 80 percent of casualties were caused by drones.

Russia has largely kept up with Ukraine in drone production, but now NATO countries are starting to produce drones as well. Russia received assistance from China, which has long been the largest manufacturer of commercial quadcopters and other types of commercial drones. Recently, China stopped supplying Ukraine with drone components while continuing to supply Russia with all it needed. Fortunately, Ukraine was already producing some of these components and several million drones a year. Ukraine also found other suppliers in Europe, the United States, and industrialized nations like South Korea. Additionally, Ukraine pioneered the use of long-range drones against military and economic targets deep inside Russia.

One of the many differences between NATO and Russia is that Russia is almost always in an arms race with some real or perceived military threat. For example, in 2006, when Russia was at peace, Russian defense firms received over eight billion dollars’ worth of orders from the Russian armed forces. About 70 percent of these orders involved weapons, with the rest for equipment, particularly electronics. The Russian defense industries had been surviving largely on export business for the previous decade. Now, with increased Russian business and growing exports, the Russians are investing in research and development to remain a world-class arms supplier.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, so did most of the business for Russian weapons manufacturers. Most research funding dried up by the end of the 1990s. Many projects were kept barely alive rather than completely shut down. Meanwhile, work continued in the West, leaving Russian equipment over a decade behind by the time research could be revived. Russian researchers took advantage of this by adapting new commercial technologies and skipping a generation of military equipment. They were determined to catch up with American and Western European military technology. At the time, they were competitive enough to keep their main customers, India and China, satisfied.

Russian generals and defense officials have long been obsessed with creating a military that all potential enemies would fear. The mighty Red Army, the most formidable ground force ever known, born in the wake of World War I, was dying of neglect and controversy in the 1990s after the Soviet Union’s demise. The Russian armed forces were rotting away due to indecision among political and military leaders. With about a million people currently in uniform, most are using weapons and equipment that, at best, were manufactured in the 1980s. The Cold War ended in 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved.

More to the point, the Soviet Union went bankrupt, its economy distorted and starved for investment due to a 25-year arms race to nowhere. This absurd operation began when corrupt politicians made a deal with the military leadership to help overthrow the current leader, Nikita Khrushchev. The politicians essentially promised the generals and admirals a blank check, as long as the military stayed out of politics and let the politicians enjoy themselves. Everyone had a grand time until, two decades later, it became clear that diverting all the money to military spending, without replacing civilian factories or infrastructure, had left the country an economic basket case. Saner, less corrupt leadership took over, but it was too late. The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991, and Russia, which then had about half the population of the former Soviet Union, began to rebuild its economy. During this time, the military budget was slashed by over 80 percent.

The number of combat divisions shrank from 180 to about 30. The air force stopped flying most of its aircraft, and the navy kept its ships mostly tied up at piers due to a lack of money for fuel or spare parts. Thousands of tanks, jet fighters, and ships wasted away. The cycle of brutal winters and sweltering summers destroyed delicate parts, especially those containing rubber used for tires and seals. Batteries died, and equipment ceased to function. Rodents ate cables and wires. Worse, anything portable enough to be stolen was stolen.

There was no money to buy new equipment. In the first five years of the 21st century, Russia had nearly 20,000 tanks on paper. Most were fit only for scrap. During that period, only 15 new tanks were purchased. The Russian arms industries, at least those that had not converted to civilian products or gone bankrupt and disappeared, survived by exporting weapons the Russian military could not afford to buy.

It wasn’t just a lack of money to buy new weapons but also an intense debate among the military leadership about what to buy. The traditionalists wanted to maintain the century-old mass army to protect the country from a conventional invasion. On the other hand, some argued that the changed political landscape meant Russia was in more danger from terrorists, particularly Islamic terrorists. To address this, an all-volunteer force of well-trained specialists was needed. Russian generals closely followed the American experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and believed this was the way to go.

Russia was in the process of abandoning over a century of mass, conscript armies and building a new force, more aligned with what the United States and Western European nations have. This meant that, within the space of two decades, from 1991 to 2011, the largest peacetime army in history was dismantled, including scrapping over 100,000 armored vehicles and over 20,000 aircraft and helicopters. The plan was to replace this with a professional force similar to what Russia had before widespread conscription was introduced in the 19th century. Back to the future, so to speak. It didn’t work out that way.