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August 22, 2025: Since June 23, a truce has been in place in the Red Sea. Houthi rebels have ceased firing rockets and missiles at passing ships. A practical reason for this is that most of the Houthi weapons have been destroyed, and the Yemeni army has resumed operations against the Houthis. The army recently seized a large shipment of Iranian weapons intended for the Houthis.
The duration of this truce remains uncertain. Iran was recently devastated by American and Israeli airstrikes, and ongoing Israeli and American airstrikes continue to deter hostile activity in Yemen. The Houthis remain present but currently possess few weapons and are reluctant to resume attacks, fearing further retribution.
Eighty percent of global trade travels by ship through a vast network of maritime trade routes. China and the United States account for 43 percent of this trade, with China contributing 17 percent and the United States the remainder. Any threat to this trade is a significant issue, and both nations address the problem differently. While the United States and its Western allies deploy warships and airstrikes to counter disruptions to maritime trade, China often bribes attackers to spare Chinese ships.
When this Chinese immunity is noticed, China dismisses accusations, claiming its ship captains are simply more skilled at avoiding attacks. This is clearly not the case, and the dispute ends in a muddle of mutual accusations. The current attacks are not destructive or widespread enough to cause significant damage to global trade. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen had been firing Iranian-supplied rockets and missiles at ships passing the Yemeni coast en route to the Suez Canal, starting after Israel invaded the Gaza Strip to stop Hamas rocket attacks. Many ships that typically use the Suez Canal now opt for the longer route around the southern tip of Africa to reach the Mediterranean Sea. This detour can cost over a million dollars per ship and add several weeks to the journey. However, this has not been as disastrous as anticipated due to a surplus of cargo and tanker ships, which has made it feasible to employ these additional vessels.
Other potential choke points include the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait, the Strait of Gibraltar, Bass Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, the Singapore Strait, the Bering Strait, the Lombok Strait, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the Bosporus Strait.
While the Red Sea crisis has been managed, a more ominous threat to global shipping is a potential war involving submarines from various nations, which could escalate into a non-nuclear world war. Anti-submarine escorts are not available in large numbers, and shipping companies, as in the early stages of both world wars, may downplay the value of convoys, insisting they can evade submarines using new technology and tactics. When this proves ineffective, convoys are implemented, and Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) evolves to become effective enough to reduce losses to a sustainable level.
Protecting maritime transportation is a critical task for shipping companies and insurers, as most nations depend on this trade. Shipping companies argue that navies do not do enough to protect shipping during wartime. The accuracy of this claim will only be revealed if another submarine offensive targets maritime trade.